Stock Trader's Almanac 2015 (Almanac Investor Series)

Stock Trader's Almanac 2015 (Almanac Investor Series)

Language: English

Pages: 192

ISBN: 1118987144

Format: PDF / Kindle (mobi) / ePub


“Historical price patterns continue to work because human nature doesn’t change, and neither does the law of supply and demand. Study past successful stocks if you want to know what future ones will look like. Stock Trader’s Almanac is all about historical facts.”
—WILLIAM J. O’NEIL, Chairman and founder, Investor’s Business Daily

“All my almost four decades in professional investing, I’ve found this annual tour de force fascinating. There is a lot of provocative here to whet your whistle and adrenaline-rush your curiosity. If you don’t find something here that tickles your mind, you probably don’t have one.”
—KEN FISHER, CEO and founder, Fisher Investments, 30-year Forbes columnist, and author of Markets Never Forget (But People Do) and The Only Three Questions That Still Count

“The Stock Trader’s Almanac is a treasure-trove of solid gold investment nuggets. No serious trader should have it far from his hands.”
—JOHN MAULDIN, author of Bull’s Eye Investing and Editor of Thoughts from the Frontline newsletter

“A venerable guide for Wall Street’s farmers to plant and harvest investments according to the season.”

“Whether I am researching seasonality trends or old Wall Street sayings, or am simply in need of some good old-fashioned investment horse sense, I start with the Stock Trader’s Almanac. I have been a student of Yale and Jeffrey Hirsch’s Almanac research for years, and look forward to future lessons.”
—SAM STOVALL, Chief Equity Strategist, Standard & Poor’s Capital IQ




















year, bringing a short, sweet, respectable rally within the last five days of the year and the first two in January. This has been good for an average 1.5% gain since 1969 (1.5% since 1950). Santa's failure to show tends to precede bear markets, or times stocks could be purchased later in the year at much lower prices. We discovered this phenomenon in 1972. DAILY % CHANGE IN S&P 500 at YEAR END The couplet above was certainly on the mark in 1999, as the period suffered a horrendous 4.0% loss.

November, December, and January: Year's Best Three-Month Span November Through June: NASDAQ'S Eight-Month Run Dow Jones Industrials Annual Highs, Lows, & Closes Since 1901 S&P 500 Annual Highs, Lows, & Closes Since 1930 NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and 2000 Annual Highs, Lows, and Closes Since 1971 Dow Jones Industrials Monthly Percent Changes Since 1950 Dow Jones Industrials Monthly Point Changes Since 1950 Dow Jones Industrials Monthly Closing Prices Since 1950 Standard & Poor's 500 Monthly Percent

worst loss ever from the 2000 top to the 2002 bottom, down 77.9%, nearly as much as the 89.2% drop in the Dow from the 1929 top to the 1932 bottom. The third longest Dow bull since 1900 that began 10/9/02 ended on its fifth anniversary. The ensuing bear market was the second worst bear market since 1900, slashing the Dow 53.8%. European debt concerns in 2011 triggered a 16.8% Dow slide, ending the recovery bull shortly after its second anniversary. At press time, the current bull market was alive

the top in 2000, traders have not been inclined to stay long over the weekend nor buy up equities at the outset of the week. This is not uncommon during uncertain market times. Monday was the worst day during the 2007–2009 bear, and only Tuesday was a net gainer. Since the March 2009 bottom, Tuesday and Thursday are best. See pages 70 and 143. MARKET % PERFORMANCE EACH DAY OF THE WEEK NASDAQ STRONGEST LAST 3 DAYS OF WEEK Despite 20 years less data, daily trading patterns on NASDAQ through 1989

2013 post-election-year high is 16576.66. A 20.9% decline would put the Dow back at 13112.14 at the 2014 midterm bottom. Whatever the level, the rally off the 2014 midterm low could be another great buying opportunity. Pretty impressive seasonality! There is no reason to think the quadrennial Presidential Election/Stock Market Cycle will not continue. Page 130 shows how effectively most presidents “managed” to have much stronger economies in the third and fourth years of their terms than in

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